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利润率改善带动利润增速回升——2017年8月工业企业效益数据点评

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月24日 10:22:07
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(  文)(:申)(万)(宏)(源)(宏)(观)(李)(慧)(勇)(、王)(健)(、余)(子)(珍)(
  经)(济)(L型)(,利)(润)(波)(动)(主)(要)(取)(决)(于)(价)(格)(和)(产)(业)(集)(中)(。供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(将)(使)(得)(价)(格)(维)(持)(在)(较)(高)(水)(平)(,产)(业)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(也)(有)(助)(于)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(稳)(定)(,总)(体)(上)(我)(们)(认)(为)(企)(业)(利)(润)(率)(较)(长)(时)(间)(将)(维)(持)(在)(当)(前)(水)(平)(。而)(受)(到)(去)(年)(较)(高)(基)(数)(的)(影)(响)(,未)(来)(企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(速)(会)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(,可)(能)(更)(多)(是)(统)(计)(数)(据)(效)(应)(。
  原)(因)(及)(逻)(辑)(:
  企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(速)(回)(升)(。尽)(管)(营)(收)(增)(速)(小)(幅)(回)(落)(,但)(由)(于)(利)(润)(率)(增)(速)(大)(幅)(回)(升)(,带)(动)(企)(业)(利)(润)(明)(显)(改)(善)(。而)(利)(润)(率)(增)(速)(的)(回)(升)(又)(与)(PPI的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(及)(单)(位)(生)(产)(成)(本)(下)(降)(有)(关)(。
  中)(下)(游)(均)(有)(所)(改)(善)(。中)(游)(的)(改)(善)(更)(为)(明)(显)(。利)(润)(改)(善)(比)(较)(明)(显)(的)(行)(业)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(受)(益)(于)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(石)(油)(加)(工)(和)(化)(工)(类)(行)(业)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(则)(是)(环)(保)(限)(产)(推)(升)(价)(格)(的)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(。
  国)(企)(利)(润)(显)(著)(好)(于)(非)(国)(企)(。无)(论)(是)(利)(润)(的)(绝)(对)(增)(速)(还)(是)(边)(际)(改)(善)(幅)(度)(,国)(企)(均)(显)(著)(优)(于)(非)(国)(企)(。在)(环)(保)(约)(束)(和)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,资)(源)(进)(一)(步)(向)(优)(势)(的)(国)(企)(集)(中)(。
  资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(下)(降)(。工)(业)(企)(业)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(连)(续)(四)(个)(月)(下)(降)(。8月)(主)(要)(表)(现)(为)(公)(用)(事)(业)(负)(债)(率)(下)(降)(。国)(企)(和)(私)(企)(负)(债)(率)(均)(有)(所)(回)(落)(。
  库)(存)(增)(速)(持)(续)(回)(落)(。库)(存)(增)(速)(连)(续)(四)(个)(月)(回)(落)(,但)(8月)(回)(落)(幅)(度)(明)(显)(放)(缓)(,主)(要)(受)(到)(需)(求)(回)(落)(影)(响)(。鉴)(于)(工)(业)(品)(库)(存)(整)(体)(不)(高)(,库)(存)(增)(速)(回)(落)(对)(经)(济)(的)(影)(响)(有)(限)(。
  正)(文)(:
  1利)(润)(率)(大)(幅)(改)(善)(带)(动)(企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(速)(回)(升)(
  1-8月)(工)(业)(利)(润)(增)(长)(21.6%,较)(1-7月)(回)(升)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(;其)(中)(8月)(增)(长)(24%,较)(7月)(加)(快)(7.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。一)(般)(来)(讲)(,企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(速)(可)(以)(分)(解)(为)(营)(收)(增)(速)(以)(及)(营)(收)(利)(润)(率)(的)(增)(速)(两)(部)(分)(。8月)(工)(业)(企)(业)(营)(收)(增)(长)(10.1%,低)(于)(7月)(的)(10.3%,主)(要)(是)(由)(于)(在)(环)(保)(限)(产)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,8月)(的)(工)(业)(生)(产)(较)(7月)(有)(比)(较)(明)(显)(的)(回)(落)(。但)(8月)(工)(业)(企)(业)(营)(收)(利)(润)(率)(上)(升)(至)(6.42%,同)(比)(增)(长)(了)(13.2%;而)(7月)(的)(营)(收)(利)(润)(率)(同)(比)(增)(长)(5.9%。与)(7月)(相)(比)(,8月)(的)(营)(收)(利)(润)(率)(增)(速)(提)(高)(了)(7.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,8月)(工)(业)(企)(业)(利)(润)(的)(改)(善)(,几)(乎)(完)(全)(来)(自)(于)(利)(润)(率)(的)(改)(善)(。
  而)(8月)(的)(利)(润)(率)(增)(速)(之)(所)(以)(能)(出)(现)(这)(么)(大)(幅)(度)(的)(改)(善)(,与)(PPI的)(大)(幅)(改)(善)(是)(密)(切)(相)(关)(的)(。8月)(PPI上)(涨)(了)(6.3%,较)(7月)(提)(高)(了)(0.8个)(百)(分)(点)(;而)(PPIRM上)(涨)(了)(7.7%,较)(7月)(改)(善)(了)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。由)(于)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(的)(改)(善)(幅)(度)(好)(于)(购)(进)(价)(格)(,降)(低)(了)(单)(位)(营)(收)(的)(生)(产)(成)(本)(。8月)(份)(,工)(业)(企)(业)(每)(百)(元)(主)(营)(业)(务)(收)(入)(中)(的)(成)(本)(为)(85.44元)(,同)(比)(减)(少)(0.64元)(;而)(7月)(每)(百)(元)(主)(营)(业)(务)(收)(入)(中)(的)(成)(本)(为)(85.9元)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(0.13元)(。因)(此)(,企)(业)(营)(收)(利)(润)(率)(出)(现)(了)(比)(较)(明)(显)(的)(改)(善)(。
  
  2中)(下)(游)(利)(润)(增)(速)(改)(善)(
  从)(三)(大)(类)(行)(业)(来)(看)(,采)(矿)(业)(、制)(造)(业)(、公)(用)(事)(业)(的)(单)(月)(利)(润)(增)(速)(均)(有)(比)(较)(明)(显)(的)(改)(善)(。其)(中)(,8月)(采)(矿)(业)(利)(润)(增)(长)(187%,好)(于)(7月)(的)(148%。8月)(制)(造)(业)(利)(润)(增)(长)(21.9%,较)(7月)(提)(高)(6.2个)(百)(分)(点)(;8月)(公)(用)(事)(业)(利)(润)(下)(跌)(6.2%,跌)(幅)(较)(7月)(收)(窄)(3.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  中)(下)(游)(的)(利)(润)(增)(速)(均)(有)(比)(较)(明)(显)(的)(改)(善)(。其)(中)(,1-8月)(中)(游)(利)(润)(增)(长)(23%,较)(1-7月)(提)(升)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(;1-8月)(下)(游)(利)(润)(增)(长)(12.5%,较)(1-7月)(提)(升)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  主)(要)(行)(业)(中)(,金)(属)(制)(品)(、石)(油)(加)(工)(、钢)(铁)(、化)(学)(原)(料)(等)(改)(善)(幅)(度)(比)(较)(明)(显)(;煤)(炭)(、化)(纤)(、仪)(器)(仪)(表)(、黑)(色)(及)(有)(色)(矿)(采)(等)(回)(落)(。从)(绝)(对)(量)(来)(看)(,化)(学)(原)(料)(、石)(油)(加)(工)(、油)(气)(开)(采)(、钢)(铁)(、计)(算)(机)(五)(个)(行)(业)(合)(计)(拉)(动)(企)(业)(利)(润)(增)(速)(加)(快)(7.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。可)(以)(看)(出)(,利)(润)(改)(善)(比)(较)(明)(显)(的)(行)(业)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(受)(益)(于)(8月)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(石)(油)(加)(工)(和)(化)(工)(类)(行)(业)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(则)(是)(环)(保)(限)(产)(推)(升)(价)(格)(的)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(。
  
  3国)(企)(利)(润)(改)(善)(幅)(度)(显)(著)(高)(于)(私)(企)(
  1-8月)(,国)(企)(利)(润)(增)(长)(46.3%,较)(1-7月)(改)(善)(了)(2.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。无)(论)(是)(利)(润)(增)(速)(还)(是)(边)(际)(改)(善)(幅)(度)(,国)(企)(都)(明)(显)(好)(于)(非)(国)(企)(。从)(单)(月)(增)(速)(来)(看)(,8月)(国)(企)(利)(润)(增)(长)(60%,较)(7月)(提)(高)(了)(25.6个)(百)(分)(点)(;而)(同)(期)(私)(企)(利)(润)(仅)(增)(长)(12.7%,较)(7月)(改)(善)(了)(1.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。说)(明)(在)(环)(保)(约)(束)(和)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,资)(源)(进)(一)(步)(向)(优)(势)(的)(国)(企)(集)(中)(。
  
  4资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(持)(续)(下)(降)(
  8月)(工)(业)(企)(业)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(为)(55.7%,环)(比)(回)(落)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,连)(续)(四)(个)(月)(下)(降)(。其)(中)(,制)(造)(业)(持)(平)(于)(54.2%,采)(矿)(业)(上)(升)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(60.4%,公)(用)(事)(业)(下)(降)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(61%。
  分)(所)(有)(制)(类)(型)(看)(,8月)(国)(企)(和)(私)(企)(的)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(均)(有)(所)(下)(降)(。其)(中)(,国)(企)(的)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(环)(比)(回)(落)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(61%,私)(企)(回)(落)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(51.4%。
  
  5库)(存)(增)(速)(持)(续)(回)(落)(
  8月)(产)(成)(品)(存)(货)(增)(长)(7.9%,小)(幅)(回)(落)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,连)(续)(四)(个)(月)(回)(落)(。但)(库)(存)(的)(回)(落)(幅)(度)(明)(显)(放)(缓)(,主)(要)(是)(受)(到)(8月)(投)(资)(、消)(费)(和)(出)(口)(等)(终)(端)(需)(求)(回)(落)(的)(拖)(累)(。基)(于)(我)(们)(对)(工)(业)(品)(库)(存)(整)(体)(不)(高)(的)(判)(断)(,库)(存)(增)(速)(回)(落)(对)(经)(济)(的)(影)(响)(有)(限)(。8月)(产)(成)(品)(周)(转)(天)(数)(则)(持)(平)(于)(13.7天)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(了)(0.7天)(。
  
新)(周)(期)(启)(动)(的)(逻)(辑)(
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